Grazor's Blog - Writing because no one wants to listen!

Good times in the Village

2011-10-05T19:31:00.000-07:00

Well I guess as is quite often the case it depends what you are looking for and sometimes its what comes looking for you and on this evening, it was just amazingly good food.

L'Artusi sits on W10th between Bleecker and Hudson in the Village.

An interesting place with darkened windows that you would walk past without knowing that inside there is a fab restaurant on two levels, with amazing food, fabulously friendly service, with an interesting wine list that is delivered by regions reflecting Italy, with way too many bottles in triple digit prices as probably my only real criticism.

The menu is broken out into four sections that represent appetisers, pasta, fish and some mains.
We chose to dine in my particular fashion, which was to share plates and graze.
We ordered 4 plates and the first two that arrived excelled.
A simple wagyu beef carpaccio, beautifully marbled, expertly sliced, with a lovely dressing of olive oil and a very light horseradish cream, with a sprinkling mix of extremely finely diced scallions which provide some nice textural difference and even more so the crunchy tiny pieces of crispbread.
We received that dish at the same time as an heirloom tomato salad with a variety of both beefsteaks and cherry tomatoes and cubes of watermelon, with crispy croutons and pieces of basil leaf, drizzled with a very tasty first press EVOO, all sitting on what I initially believed to be slices of toasted bread. Surprise, its slabs of nicely braised pork belly that one assumes has then crisped up to provide another layer of texture and taste. Sweet tomatoes, salty delicious pork belly, sweet watermelon cubes.... there I was thinking it would be nice to have burrata with my heirloom tomato sald and instead I get blown out of the water by a totally unexpected combo.
Next up was the bucatini with a pomodoro sauce with crispy pancetta.
I love bucatini and its not served in restaurants as often as I would like to see, so we had to have it and what a joy of beautiful al-dente goodness served with a nicely reduced, slightly spicy tomato sauce with just the right amount of diced crispy pancetta and onions.
Thus far we were doing so well, I was getting concerned. The Barbera we had ordered, a wonderful red chosen by my dining companion was an excellent complement and we didn't have to wait long before our final dish was delivered.
A very nice medium rare flat-iron steak, sliced into chunks of perfectness, served with oven roasted potatoes (almost roast potato heaven) and a new condiment for me in their salsa bianco. On first blush, I had thought maybe it was that beautiful ricotta that they had served us at the very start of the meal with salty brown soft crackers; however it was a mixture of creme fraiche, horseradish, finely diced pickled shallots and salt, that was the perfect accompaniment to those sublimely fabulous roast potatoes.
The combination is just an amazingly good one that had us thrillled and truly impressed.
Again what a wonderful combination.
We decided not to have dessert despite the very attractive choices; however we were delivered a single scoop of an intensely flavoured lemon gelato with an amaretto cookie that had aspects of a chewy macaroon; yet still cookie like, providing a lovely finish.
Eating out with regularly, its pretty easy for one's palate to get jaded; however the choices at L'Artusi as simple as they seem are so well executed, and delivered with such poise that their simple elegance, as served will speak very clearly for themselves. It didn't harm the overall experience to have wonderful service delivered by a young pleasant part time dancer that served us.
This place receives 4.5 forks out of 5! Why not 5, you might ask, quite simply they need to offer more well priced wines, rather than the large number of triple digit dollar bottles on offer.
http://lartusi.com/

By Grazor on Sep 13, 2011 06:55AM

The Emperors "Urns" Naught _ June 15th

2011-06-16T08:05:00.000-07:00

Yesterday morning, as I was looking at the market trying to divine the tea-leaves that represents the various information that provides guidance, I was torn between spending anymore time on understanding what's going on in Europe and the impact on rates with both the US and Canadian 10Y benchmarks sitting around 3.00%.

The geopolitical jitters (handy understatement I might add) that represent our current global markets are understandably scary.

Let's step back and look at China first, as the China Rising story has been a most pervasive one over the years. Many economists had generally accepted, acknowledged, or challenged that Chinese consumption would help propagate global growth and lead us all out of the great crisis.

While the Chinese have been consuming, they have increasingly started to run into their own problems, from drought in some parts to flooding in others, energy issues, and most recently China Uprising, than just Rising, as protests against government which have traditionally been focused in agricultural areas, has increasingly found its way into urban centres.
China's economy is overheating and that is especially clear as inflation starts to increase and the Chinese "command" economy seems to have less command about it. In recent times there's been a wide number of rate increases to stem that inflationary growth, and suddenly with substantive issues of their own to deal with the Chinese Rising can no longer be the saviour of choice.

In North America, the promise of the US continues to be failed and flawed, even as the GOP and the incumbent Administration stare each other down on the budget ceiling, and what to do as the next supporting act in what has been a jobless recovery. The US seems intent on focusing much if not all of its resources into the financial services area while ignoring the evident need in the more general area of small business and infrastructure projects that can help propel immediate growth, consumption and numerous multiplier effects for the US economy.

In Canada despite our avoidance of the same extent of damage as our partners south of the 49th parallel, we are saddled with some of the same challenges, though in typical fashion it represents only a small percentage of what the US is experiencing. Ultimately we are still joined at the hip with our US neighbour and as such their fate and pours are inextricably linked as our largest partner.

This brings us around to Europe and the picture is an unusually bleak one, with problems continually being kicked further down the road as with Greece; but back to that "ugly" in a moment. Let's however take a pulse check for the rest of Europe and the fiat Euro (reasonably true of all the major currencies).

Recent elections in Spain and Portugal has trounced the incumbents sending a clear message that austerity is not a pill that joe public is williing to swallow, a reaction we have already observed in Ireland, as the public increasingly understands that they are being asked to bear the burden of bad risk management oversight at banks, in turn being bailed out by their governments.
In Italy the population is increasingly tired of Berlusconi and his antics and 4 recent referenda, that his party had encouraged voters not to turn out to vote for, ended up with overwhelming turnout with votes in favour of those referenda, indicating the increasingly turning tide against him and his party.

Getting back to the real big issue however, which is Greece currently and over the preceeding 18 months.

German Finance Minister Schaeuble on one side and ECB's Trichet on the other and the IMF, Rating Agencies, and Investors on the sidelines watching intently. Greece two days back had four of its banks rating reduced to CCC, something I wasn't aware was a rating in all honesty. Understandably its prospects continue to worsen as the market through credit default swaps is assigning a 50% default probability to Greece/Greek debt.

In the Germany- ECB standoff, the former has suggested that it would be acceptable to have what many would term a default event without breaking the back of the Europe, with Trichet adamant that it cannot happen and that's it would possibly refuse Geek debt as collateral, with the IMF indicating unless a plan is agreed upon for resolving Greek finances of over next 12 months, then even part of the original Euro package agreed upon last year might not be forthcoming.

*****Germany with Bundesbank President Says Euro Could Withstand Greek Default
2011-06-12 12:46:25.692 GMT - By Richard Weiss
June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann raised the pressure on governments to agree to a Greek bailout
without the European Central Bank taking part in easing the country's debt burden, saying the euro can withstand a default. [Source: Bloomberg]

*****Trichet 'Holding a Gun to Own Head' on Greece: Chart of the Day - 2011-06-12 23:00:01.0 GMT - By Matthew Brown and Keith Jenkins
June 13 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank is playing a "high stakes game of chicken" with Germany by threatening to
disqualify Greek debt as collateral in the event of a bond restructuring, according to Baring Asset Management. [Source: Bloomberg]

******ECB-German Standoff Risks Damage That May Force Compromise
2011-06-13 07:57:22.33 GMT (By James Hertling and Jonathan Stearns June 13 (Bloomberg) -- The confrontation between the European Central Bank and Germany over bailing out Greece risks causing so much damage that officials may be forced to compromise.
"The balance of forces in the euro zone is a little like it was in the Cold War: both sides are brandishing deterrents that would be too horrendous to use," said Philip Whyte, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London. "It's all going to turn on whether you can fiddle with
debt maturities without calling it a credit event." [Source: Bloomberg]

Is this scary enough for you? Europe burns and the would be emperors at the ECB, the IMF and Germany fiddle different tunes.

Who said the revolution would not be televised.

Good luck out there...we need some!

Democracy & Hypocrisy or the New Imperialism

2011-04-02T22:21:00.000-07:00

Lying in bed this morning listening to the local talk station, I was reminded of how much hypocrisy we are surrounded by an subjugated to in all its myriad forms.

Globally my disappointment is increasing and in particular with the recent actions of the current incumbent in the seat of power, in his latest undertaking in Libya, sanctioned by the UN and led by the US.

That there is a civil war unfolding is unquestionable and while no one wants to see another Rwanda (my basic understanding suggests that this is neither tribal or religious divisions driving the situation; but social & political), its so terribly disingenuous to suggest its in the name of democracy rather than simply securing a major source of desperately needed light sweet crude -OIL-.

The supposed desire to create change in a form that reflects western ideals through the democratic process is very laughable, almost cynical, and smacks of terrible idealism or reckless stupidity bordering on cunning. the cynical view however might suggest simply anew imperialism as President Obama continues a not too different policy approach in the Middle East theatre to his predecessors.

If it was truly the case that the democratic process was respected or revered as a way forward in the Middle East and North Africa then in all likelihood Hamas would be the recognized power in Palestine back in 2006, as they won that"democratic" elections; but was selectively ignored by the West as not suitable in character or ideology even if "democratically elected".

On our own doorstep here in Canada, in my absence an election was called (ok so they didn't need my approval) and interestingly enough of the 5 parties that Elections Canada subsidizes, only four will have an opportunity to use the media platform in the upcoming debates.

Simply put, the media in Canada is deciding for the electorate who they can and cannot hear from and essentially limiting possibilities. Where the hell is Elections Canada and its mandate as Broadcast Arbitrator,and who gave the media the right to make that kind of presumptuous decision. The ah- in apathy towards this upcoming election couldn't be more evident.

Worst still is that none of the parties have anything terribly interesting to say as they increasingly move more towards US style attack ad tactics, where the clear lack of substance is so palpable that the opportunity to clip ones toenails might be deemed infinitely more enjoyable.

Unfortunately it doesn't end there as the next item on the news was of the new Toronto Mayor scrapping some long thought out plans on a general transportation strategy for the GTA and introducing his own plan. While a transportation strategy in itself is a great idea, I always understood substantial strategies of that nature with its wider implications would have the consultation of the people's chosen representatives i.e. the duly elected Councillors chosen by the electorate.
What the hell has happened to democracy and why is so much of its replacement, hypocrisy, not been challenged more so?

Foodies, Bloggers, Life!

2011-03-11T06:46:00.000-08:00

I recently finished my eighth course at George Brown College in Toronto in Culinary Arts, with one more to take to complete my Culinary Arts certification.

This is a matter of personal pride and also an amazing journey over the last couple of years,with Saturday or Sunday afternoons or for that matter Saturday morning jaunts into Toronto to attend class.

The journey has provided me with a huge amount of enjoyment, knowledge and joy along the way. I have made some good new friends and acquaintances and really learnt to appreciate some of the Chefs teaching at GBC. I have yet to have a bad experience.
The stern but immensely likeable Anne-Marie S., Frank T. the friendly giant, Patrick J. with his deadpan delivery of his jokes, Gerry M. with his enthusiasm, and the very animated and very funny Ian D. A really wonderful group of teachers and Chefs.

I have learnt the elegant simplicity of making pasta from scratch with the amount of variety that portends, agnolotti anyone.

I have confirmed my understanding and expanded my techniques for a number of dishes as well as filleting both flat and round fish and cooking them for their best results, I have also learnt and appreciated how delicate a fish mackerel is to fillet.

A fully de-boned chicken, stuffed and roasted is a joyous Sunday supper item, and family favourite.

My appreciation of French cuisine has been heightened and my understanding of how a mother sauce can create many beautiful daughters substantially enhanced.

In the interim I have also been trying my hand at baking. I have always baked; though my frustrations with this branch of cooking has more to do with the strictures or constraints. In baking the opportunity to be as creative on the fly isn't as great in my opinion, because baking is much more science. That's never stopped me ; but I find it less inviting.

Nonetheless I have started trying my hand at making bread specifically the challah style(milk, egg& sugar as base ingredients) braided loaves. My two attempts thus far have yielded improving results, with the second time around a better success. Part of this interest has been fuelled by seeing the New Diva of British Cooking, and ex-model Lorraine Pascale doing her stuff.

Both my son and myself immediately loved her on seeing the first episode of her UK show, Baking Made Easy (I also obtained the book from Amazon UK in short order).

I am still keen on charcuterie and there is so much more I would like to undertake/experience in this area; though I haven't moved as far forward in as I would like.

Part of the issue has been time (2010 was one of my busiest years from a professional and personal perspective, with much weekend travel related to the latter).

Likely the fact that I haven't accquired a proper curing chamber for my further adventures in charcuterie is another reason.

However I have had the joy of finding some other blindingly capable non-professional cooks on line that inspire me. The biggest of those is Matt Wright at WRIGHTFOOD, a transplanted Brit living in Seattle that's cooks elegantly with locally sourced produce and provides high quality pictorials and videos of his work. Did I mention that he is also very big into Charcuterie (and shoes, two loves we both share).

This guy is really, really very good and is generous to a fault on his blog with info, recipes and sharing his experience.

In addition I have started to develop a friendship with another foodie and blogger with immense style and passion, that makes for brilliant conversation. Check her out at The Indulgent Foodie. Brilliant!

The possibilities are expansive as me move into spring and the mood lightens up and we start to get open markets. I see steamed new potatoes with a dill and sweet butter dressing served with poached salmon and a lovely saffron aioli, with a nice crisp sauvignon blanc just on the horizon. Bring it on baby!

Headless Chickens on a Rampage!

2010-10-06T06:47:00.000-07:00

Yesterday morning in conversation with clients the general sense of the market was that it made even less than usual. My view expressed with a certain degree of misplaced concern was that the Fed, Administration and Treasury in the US were running around like headless chickens and it wasn't any better in Europe.
China has its issues and Japan overnight has expressed its degree of desperation by making the enormous change of lowering its rates from 0.10% to a range of 0.0% - 0.10%, leading to an interesting rally. More quantitative easing, with the Japanese leading the way.

My views were somewhat reflected at lunchtime yesterday when I had the pleasure of hearing the sometimes provocative Soc Gen London strategist Dylan Grice (current partner of Albert Edwards at SG, London) sharing his views of inflation, deflation and other growth related matters, essentially mirroring my view in a somewhat more precise fashion; by explaining that Dr. Bernanke does not know what he is doing.

Essentially Bernanke has been put in a situation where he is trying different things, without knowing what or how they might end up working, if at all.

Looking at Japan's actions yesterday morning, it seems representative of the global experience currently. In all domains the view is how to stimulate further for growth as the majority of economies crawl along what seems the bottom of a chasm while hoping to get back cliffside, without knowing what the appropriate tools might be.

Taking the FED as our natural case in point, a trillion plus spent last year provided an attractive equity market rally and not much else. Despite low rates and relatively cheap credit, its reasonable to assume that those that can afford to are choosing not to borrow and maybe those that would like to may not meet the new current standards.
There is a clear air of desperation out there currently with market reactions seemingly out of proportion with the trigger event; however maybe not if the vampire squid folks are correct.

******Goldman Sachs Says U.S. Economy May Be 'Fairly Bad' (Update2)
2010-10-06 04:46:23.568 GMT By Wes Goodman
Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. economy is likely to be "fairly bad" or "very bad" over the next six to nine months.
"We see two main scenarios," analysts led by Jan Hatzius, the New York-based chief U.S. economist at the company, wrote in an e-mail to clients. "A fairly bad one in which the economy grows at a 1 1/2 percent to 2 percent rate through the middle of next year and the unemployment rate rises moderately to 10 percent, and a very bad one in which the economy returns to an outright recession."*******[Bloomy]

The FED has floated trial balloons on a second round of quantitative easing and according to some QE never left ( I am m in agreement to that notion), as stealth QE has been continually undertaken in any number of ways. In fact it seems much has already been priced in to the current market..

We have global yields at lows (apart from the sovereigns running headlong into the abyss)

With 2Y US treasuries at 0.41% and 3Y at 0.57%, what's your preference here, to go short with more expected QE and any flight to quality pushing rates lower, to go long, with us within spitting distance of zero yields in the US bond market?
While the preference might be to be short the potential pain with that position in the short term, might provide quite a bit of refrain ( thank goodness I am not a trader).

All that having been said of course, with the historically low holdings of US Treasuries by banks and the fact that it does not attract any capital usage and with the buoyant balance sheets, 10Y UST could reasonably reach 2.00% in short order.

The sovereign crisis never quite went away, though folks chose to ignore it for a while and once again it has painfully reminded everyone that it still there with Ireland the most recent of the PIIGS that has attracted attention and being downgraded overnight.
It seems obvious that is only a matter of time before we have a sovereign default. Even as governments initiate austerity programs in Europe the civil unrest grows and is especially evident when the age of retirement is being modified, manipulated upwards to provide breathing room.

Globally competitive devaluation has become the weapon of choice as nations look to make their currencies cheaper, whether through verbal or currency intervention ( at least in the former case there is an endless supply of words available, not so with reserves). My anecdotal market observations over the past 20 years would be that currency intervention rarely if ever work, recent examples being Brazil, Switzerland and most recent of all the Japanese. Anyone remember that less that two weeks ago they drew the line in the sand at 83.00, spent reserves and yesterday the currency dipped to 82.96.

There are some signs out there that are positive in terms of the data; however its simply isn't consistent enough or substantial enough at this time to provide the necessary foundation for higher confidence required.

Even here in Canada where we have patted ourselves on the back throughout this whole upheaval and market shift, though we should not get too smug as we are not an island unto ourselves. As goes our neighbours south of the 49th parallel, so go we, though obviously to a lesser extent; but we are getting market calls here in Canada of housing slowing down despite all time low mortgage rates.

As we move to Thanksgiving this weekend here in Canada we will also be facing US non-farm payroll, a number this month that seems to take on even more significance than usual based on some of my observations above. It has me distracted from what sort of stuffing I might wish to use with the Thanksgiving turkey. Ah well, it is about work.

Good Luck.

For that Thanksgiving Stuffing...well here you go!

Sausagemeat
1 small onion (finely chopped)
3 or 4 mushrooms finely chopped
Some tomato puree
1 teaspoon curry powder
1 teaspoon paprika
1/2 teaspoon cayenne
Dried thyme, tarragon, sage
1 box of paxo stuffing
Dried apricots diced finely or a handful of dried raisins (optional)
Half a cup of cooked rice (optional)

In a frying pan, heat some oil and add your sausagemeat, break it up to fine and brown.
Once it has started to brown add your finely diced onions and mushrooms and then add your spices and tomato puree, cook thoroughly,
Now add your cooked rice if using, and your sweet offset (apricots or raisins)
Next add the dried paxo breadcrumbs to the mix and add a little hot water until your get a nice moist mix that's nicely seasoned to taste
Place in ovenproof dish and bake covered at 350 for about 15-20 mins if cooking a day before hand or earlier in the day. Prior to serving warm up gently in the oven initial covered and then uncovered for full golden brown without burning.

Basel, Basil, or the New Fawlty Towers?

2010-09-17T11:54:00.001-07:00

3 out of 3 Analysts agree that their bonuses have been guaranteed for the next 9 years. A bit of a cheeky headliner on Zero Hedge, which likely is a decently accurate interpretation of how most folks see a 9 year lead in period to the new BASEL III Capital Adequacy requirements.

As pointed out by the folks at CS an awful lot can happen in 9 years. Infact a whole market shift can occur, not to mention new markets created and developed.

Seems on the face of it that in its finality the regulations seem a bit of a cop out but maybe not so surprising necessarily, in light of the "stress tests" undertaken and what belatedly has been acknowledged as the lax nature of said stress tests.

Understandably we have a pretty decent equity rally underway since last week led by European financials.

Interestingly the same financials no doubt where so much concern was being expressed a short while ago (in particular with a focus on French and German Banks) re their exposure to the PIIGS.

Suddenly they are all a buy, which once again brings up the whole notion and idea of market behaviour and the drunkards walk aspect it often seems to follow.

While summer isn't officially over, Labour Day seems to always provide that cut-off point and it. Lo and behold the Greeks having finished their summer vacation have taken to the street once more in protest. It has been a disaster waiting to happen and has seemed inevitable . The refusal to undergo the hard therapy that is restructuring, has simply put off the inevitable, as the ECB and IMF support is providing little sway based on what short term Greek rates currently represent!

Its mixed out there with some encouraging signs; but an awfully long way to go and with interpretation open to all ( bit like last weeks BoC guidance really)!

Adventures in Curing - BRESAOLA !

2010-08-18T04:59:00.001-07:00

Well I pretty much scared everyone in the family last evening. I had gone next door to borrow my neighbours commercial style slicer to administer to two pork bellies I had cured and smoked earlier in the week, then I remembered my experiment hanging in the cold room in the basement. I had my eye of round from almost a month before that I had cured hanging in teh basement cold room.

I used a recipe from my smoking and curing bible[Charcuterie - by Ruhlman & Polcyn] as seen in the pikkies here and tried to follow the recipe as accurately as I could. One week of curing, followed by new cure and a second week of curing.

Rinsed and air dried initially for a couple of hours, the instructions would have me next simply tie up the eye of round and leave it to air dry for 3 weeks.

Because it was an experiment, I used a small piece of eye of round (687 grams).

The idea of simply hanging the meat in the cold rooms downstairs didn't much appeal and I have yet to obtain a magic curing chamber like my hero Michael on Menu in Progress http://snipurl.com/10pm4y [menuinprogress_com], so my concession was to buy muslin/cheesecloth and use that to wrap it first then tie it up as per the instructions.

After the first week of hanging, I was having concerns as I saw white fuzz appearing and was already conceding that I might have farked up and have to regard my initial experiment as a fail; however, I held the faith and proceeded and so here we were 2 weeks into the air dry phase and the piece of eye of round was already as hard as a stone.

I asked my son to bring it up to the evident horror of my wife and daughter who almost ran from the kitchen as they claimed it looked like a some small animal that had been mummified. (Not very nice).

I was starting to feel a sense of abject failure. I would have to throw the bloody thing away and simply put it down to experience; but as they say, in for a penny, in for a pound. I cut all the strings, and removed the fuzzy cheesecloth/muslin, which seems to have taken on an almost bluish tint in certain areas and was blown away.

Yes it had clearly shrunk in size; but what I had in front of me was this dark hued almost dark log like colour on the outside (it suddenly struck me hey, that's how it looks in my local deli).

Having just sliced two large pork bellies, time to give this slicer a quick clean and proceed with slicing this piece of evident joy.

I proceed to cut it in half to fit into the slicer and I am overjoyed with the result, take a look and let me know if you agree. The taste is quite remarkable with a nice spiciness (the extra mace and black pepper) with that hint of must generally associated with Bresaola.

There is some reluctance admittedly in the family to eat it as its associated with what looked like the mummified remains of a small animal; but oh joy my foodie mates at work, will no doubt be more appreciative.

The New Normal or Crisis Fatigue?

2010-07-28T08:29:00.000-07:00

Of late there has been very little to feel overly excited about in the market.

The majority of the important data seems to fall far short of expectations and the majority of the earnings season mixed. So too was the highly anticipated results of the Stress Tests for European Banks, which was awaited with much anticipation and bated breath last week.
It was rather interesting that the results would be coming out at the close of the European markets on a Friday, while North America was still open; but even more so, that what was meant to create one assumes greater transparency, was not necessarily the case.

In the end the results were published/leaked earlier than the time stated by CEBS and in typically cynical fashion the market gave it the secret thumbs down.
The conversation seems to have focused on there being a whitewash for the less than stringent rules being applied.

Why so surprised I ask?
Seems to me that it was no different for the other bank stress tests we have seen in the last year, so naturally market reaction was hardly positive.

This provides a nice sequitur for my next point which is the question of what kind of day we will deal with on market open. In the case of the result of said stress tests it was a risk off day, and reading headlines this morning as I journey the GO Train, its risk on once more.

This has been the pattern for some time now during this crisis (its not over). Yesterday, I read a rather good piece on the nature of risk-on, risk-off market from one of Shrill Bill's PM's from Pimco, Richard Clarida, who I had heard previously mentioned off based on his very interesting dissertations at this years CFA forum in Boston. Titled the Schizophrenic Risk On, Risk Off Market.

His assertion is that the fundamental nature of the market is changing and the degree of volatility has increased based on the greater number of fat tail events and the flatter normal distribution, creating what might be called a "new normal"

He used the following quote from Bloomberg writer Mark Gilbert to introduce and underscore the notion

"The 'New Normal'...turns out to be a world where scenarios move from impossible to inevitable without even pausing at improbable. Flocks of black swans go winging by with a frequency that is dulling our sensitivity to just how extraordinary these financial times are. Call it crisis fatigue." - Mark Gilbert, Bloomberg, June 2010

The piece is quite thought provoking as it also acknowledges the fact that with a large percentage of the shadow banking system (securitization) now gone, deleveraging taking place and as a client in Ottawa pointed out to me,

"some distributions have undefined means because tails are too fat" thus. "if returns are clustered around mean, then you increase leverage".

Clearly as these returns are not (i.e. clustered around the mean) because of the number of fat tails and the breakdown of the shadow banking system, the implication to me suggests some type of potential for a paradigm shift on how market are traded with much larger degrees of volatility. (Maybe of the three market behavioural books recently purchased based on Soc Gen's Dylan Grice's recommendation holds the answer).

As Mr. Clarida puts it "Now and for the foreseeable future, we are in a world in which average outcomes - for growth, inflation, corporate and sovereign defaults, and the investment returns driven by these outcomes - will matter less and less for investors and policymakers. This is because we are in a New Normal world in which the distribution of outcomes is flatter and the tails are fatter. As such, the mean of the distribution becomes an observation that is very rarely realized," **** [Zero Hedge]

The term fat tail is a reference to the tendency of many financial instrument price and return distributions to have more observations in the tails and to be thinner in the midrange than a normal distribution. Assets prone to price jumps tend to exhibit fat-tailed distributions. Courtesy John A. Robb
His take away, being three points discussed above. Managing fat tails (good luck), the risk-on, risk-off mentality as a direct result of those fat tails leading to obviously greater vol directed by the reaction to "news and data bombs" and finally lower leverage, which with the reduction of liquidity (read leverage) from the shadow banking system, naturally makes it more challenging.

By the way its risk-on day today as we had favourable data coming out of Europe including some bank earnings (UBS, Deutsche) giving European equities a a lift and rates cheapening up, so markets off to a positive start overseas and looking that way for this side of the pond.

Miami Beach & SoBE Eateries

2010-03-23T14:33:00.000-07:00

Miami is such a land/city/place of contrasts,that's its hardly easily or otherwise tagged.
I spent a week there recently and my observations once again were about the evident wealth more so based on where I stayed this time in the SoFi (South of Fifth) area.
More Maseratis, soft top Bentleys, Mercedes Sports two seaters and Porsche Cayenne's than you can shake a stick at.

Mixed weather but a fun time had by all with three distinct groups, including myself the host and a couple of mates, my host plus my family and me and my family.

alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5455582105436598066" />

It was fun and different and opens up ones eyes to how it is elsewhere.
March Break in the US and Oceanside Drive was teeming with young black folk.
The accents and vocabulary as always interesting to say the least; but currently most noteworthy and equally foolishly idiotic as the pants on the ground phenomenon, is the latest trend noted, and that is to wear one's shower slippers/sport sandals with socks, preferably black.

Its distinct, ridiculous and amusing all at once.

Anyhoo the major piece here really is and woz a focus on the restaurant scene.

I posted my review on Chowhound under my nickname Grazor as I often do and had one individual challenge me at every turn on one of my reviews. It was interesting to note; but really my opinion simply isn't that important. Its mine and its individual. Oh well its all good shits and giggles from my perspective.

Take a gander below if you are interested.

A South Beach Visit - Places I ate and Places I Hate (not really hate, though found dissapointing)

.

Emerils at the Loews Hotel

From a service perspective I can honestly say that it was quite good, very attentive and immensely professional deserving of high marks, something I cannot say about the majority of the food.
It was a wobbly and very expensive experience for five adults, coming in at about $200 a pop.
With a couple of bottles of wine.
Let's start with the first surprise, which is the lack of anything that might be Nawlins style food. While I really don't know what that is I had certain expectations (where are the crayfish dishes, dirty rice, estoufade, alligator tails) and was sorely disappointed. The menu is pedestrian at best with execution that can only be called unbalanced. I start with the lobster gnocchi, that well known Nawlins favourite (yes) and I am immediately pleasantly surprised and horrified, soft pillowy gnocchi in a lobster cream sauce folded in with sweet lobster meat works nicely; however I immediately notice to my horror that someone's hair seems to have been an unrequested addition ( i am bald, i mean completely shaved head bald).

The very professional waiter removes my plate with apologies and in short order my dish is replaced with another. Quite tasty. My main is an 18oz bone in rib eye, which I order cooked medium rare. Two things disappoint on this tasty cut. They serve it to me very rare and they plaster it with gloopy sauces galore that hides the meats lovely flavour. So two strikes right there. We order sides including the ubiquitous truffle mac and cheese and the creamed spinach.
It’s completely uninspiring. Not that either should be inspiring necessarily; however to have 2 side dishes where you could not distinguish one from the other because they are not only served in similar dishes ; but represents a glutinous mess topped with layers of cheese so deep as to be challenging to slop out of the giant ramekins in which they are presented. All rather disappointing and what's with a 34 oz steak for $155 on the menu?
It says a lot about the lack of imagination of the restaurant and the menu in general. Give it a miss, you won't be missing anything. No forks of appreciation here. It’s expensive and the food is totally lacklustre and uninspiring. Actually if anything it’s no forking good. Sorry.

$$$$ 5 forks out of 10.

MEAT MARKET (Lincoln Road)

My host in SoBe wasn't sure if he should bring me to this spot, simply because he has had mixed experiences there; but he decided to chance it and I am glad though the outcome was as he had surmised.....mixed.
Three of us including another friend who works in Barbados sat down for dinner and started with a trio of shared appetisers as recommended. We had ceviche three ways, the Sockeye ceviche (though the very competent waiter mangled the name, that as Canadians we all looked at each other thinking for all these years we had mispronounced it and it was possibly Japanese)
Was incredibly fresh and very tasty and was served as a sashimi style ceviche. The blend of flavours while clever has some overpowering aspects in particular I thought the sesame seed oil (if I am not mistaken). The next one was the tuna, which was served in small cubes with an Asian influenced marinade which was quite delicious. The final ceviche was a more traditional style with lime etc in bit sized chunks, the fish if I remember correctly was dolphin and while from a texture standpoint quite delish was overcooked in the lime which seemed to be the primary takeaway. I had to take a large swig of my Albarino to get away from that one. Our main was an excellent steak served sliced for 3 ($68) and a good value. We also ordered lobster tails and their version of surf and turf, which was from the description 2 braised short ribs topped with snow crab meat. In my dear little head I had visions of two large bones with succulent fall away braised meat sitting astride each other with lashings of crab meat untop. Well while tasty it was a real disappointment, I suspect the shredded meat from the short rib while rather tasty was likely not even one full rib far less two. We enjoyed the meal. The service was flawless, the sommelier extremely good in his helpfulness and all round a good meal, though not an excellent one.
Would most definitely go back.

$$$$ 7 forks out of 10

Sushi Samba Dromo (Lincoln and Pennsylvania)

Being a lover of things Japanese and especially the use of other ingredients married with Japanese ones or a Japanese style applied for non Japanese ingredients, I was all up for the suggestion of dining with my buddies and one friend that was about to embark on a cruise from my Miami with his lovely daughters and wife.
I must say I was pleasantly surprised by my experience that when my son and wife joined me a couple of days later I took them there; but two very different experiences. A capable waiter with the right attitude can easily help ameliorate food not being up to what one might expect and that was so evident from 2 visits 3 nights apart.
On the Saturday night we sat outside and 5 adults and 2 kids dined and it was a wonderful experience. My three mates had previously eaten here and knew the drill, so they decided after much haranguing of moi, to go 7 course omakase, while I decided that the menu while overwhelming had a number of things that caught my eye, including the rock shrimp, the antichuros skewers of both beautifully marinated beef and delicious fish on Peruvian corn (its forking huge, the Peruvian corn that is, and has a slight sweetness and the texture of a boiled Yukon gold) and then my piece de resistance the Chilean sea bass marinated with miso That was cooked to perfection served with a few sautéed al dente vegetables and was a wonderful way to finish off my meal; but the beautiful marriage was the wonderful different plates that our waitress kept on selecting and bring to the table (which I naturally got to try in most instances- that tempura sisho leaf with the finely chopped and marinated tuna was quite divine). The food atmosphere and service was great and an enjoyable evening. Was had by all. With my wife and son coming in to meet me the next day - decided that I would treat them to dinner there on the Monday night and there-in lies the rub. The service from a balding and good looking and what I took to be a gay man was indifferent at best. The food wasn't as good though we enjoyed everything we ordered with the exception of the beef skewers and we finished of sharing the lovely sea bass with rather unusual coconut rice.
I would definitely go back.

$$$ 7 forks out of 10

Other places visited during my stay.

Larios on the beach.
Cuban influenced food. Relatively cheap and cheerful. Decent service and for what they provide. Two thumbs and 6 forks.

$$ - 6 forks out of 10

Big Pink on Collins and 2nd,

which I would have to say the jury is out. The service was indifferent on the two occasions we went for brunch (first occasion the waiter even wrote out for me what 18% tip equivalent was and what 20% was for indifferent service. Ha, farking cheek!). The food is ok to indifferent. My son who loves his burgers found his tasteless.
It’s convenient and you can order in and the menu is HUUGE and therein might be the problem I suspect; though the local Fire Marshals that frequent the place I suspect would not agree with me.

$ - jury is out with a tentative 4 forks out of 10

Smith & Wollenskys (at South Pointe)

We had to do steak; however walking back to our friend’s condo we could have tried Texas de Brasil which was much closer
My 18 ounce bone in rib eye was done to my exact specifications with that wonderful charred look and smell one can really only ever achieve from I assume a 1300 to 1500 F grill; but the first cut with my steak knife reflected my request for medium rare to perfection. Hell I had to take some back which was sliced and made ready for bagels for my journey back to Toronto the next morning. Ordered way too many sides and knew that.

$$$$$ 7 forks out of 10

News Cafe
Ah the ubiquitous all day breakfast joint. Guess what it never seems to fail to deliver and quite often after walking down Oceanside after dinner and way to many drinks we would slip into the bar and have final cleansing ale.
Its cheap, it’s cheerful, the quality of the breakfasts is always good and the service excellent.

$ - 8 forks out of 10 (why? because it does what it does extremely well ,and continues to be dirt cheap)

Nikki Beach (at the end of Oceanside)

I love the house music and despite the invariable wait, its a great spot for people watching and the brunch while at $35 is hardly cheap, is all you can eat> So despite not being big on buffets, the French folks have got a decent formula on the go. I make a point of going on any Sunday I find myself in SoBe

$$$ 7 forks out of 10

Bentleys in Islamordora - Middle Keys

ovverrated,.....quite simply! Why would you slap a piece of grilled cheese on a nicely cooked and seasoned piece of fresh snapper for gawds sake.

$$$ 4 forks out of 10

The World Aroud US Today!

2010-02-04T07:20:00.000-08:00

After what was a rash of new issues in the month of January, the pace seems to have slowed down sufficiently as market pundits take stock of the rather ambiguous nature of the global theatre from a political & economic viewpoint.

Currently trying to make an accurate assessment of the global environment is like trying to tickle a trout in a fast moving stream into your frying pan, you need real expertise and need to have done it previously. I don't know much about tickling trout; but certainly will try to at least make an assessment of the global market environment*

Last week we saw Bernanke reconfirmed; but not without dissent and one of the narrowest margins since voting for the position of Lord Incumbent of the Creature from Jekyll Island began. Talking of dissent we also had Kansas City Fed President Hoenig doing just that after the Creatures’ two day meeting where they maintained their lower for longer language. Hoenig’s singular dissent however had the whole market in a tizzy as shorts ramped up, longs tried to close out, steepeners became flatteners and once again everyone jumped on the wagon of higher rates around the corner. This week however Australia surprised the market, having started to raise rates last year, consensus from pretty much all economists was for a 25bp hike and a given event. It didn’t happen and one can only imagine that the IMF admonishments to the EU and the US of the possibility of rate hikes too soon derailing whatever recovery might be on the way being heard all the way down under.

This brings us to Canada where a relatively rosy picture exists (its relative after all). Canada while not having to deal with all the issues that plagued the US market and real economy did have "stuff" to deal with. While on the whole our economy and banks look in better shape and our housing market continues to climb, nonetheless our Finance Minister saw fit to throw some cold water on any over enthusiasm that was building on our economic outlook. There seems a pattern emerging; but no evident clarity.

What is evident is that the US deficit continues to grow and President Obama and his administration have an awful lot of work to do to right the US economy and by implication the world economy and require Chinese cooperation. With the recent US arm sales to Taiwan and the impending meeting of President Obama with the Dalai Lama, I suspect that those actions do very little for betterment of relationships with one’s biggest creditor, at a time when you are increasing your debt load (where is Handsome Hank Paulson, China expert extraordinaire when one needs him?).

"If the U.S. leader chooses this time to meet the Dalai Lama, that would damage trust and cooperation between our two countries, and how would that help the United States surmount the current economic crisis?"

Zhu Weiqun, vice minister of the United Front Work Department of China's ruling Communist Party, [Reuters]

The sequitur is then the implications for & the state of the greenback. Surprisingly despite competitive devaluation, it seems at all times that its untouchable as the worlds reserve currency, and despite Moody’s warnings about the US AAA ratings potentially being in jeopardy, the question that's is there for all to ask, what is the alternative?

***Moody's warns US of credit rating fears
By Michael Mackenzie in New York and Gillian Tett in London Published: February 3 2010 19:53

Moody's Investors Service fired off a warning on Wednesday that the triple A sovereign credit rating of the US would come under pressure unless economic growth was more robust than expected or tougher actions were taken to tackle the country's budget deficit ****[ft.com]

A rather good question indeed when one considers the state of the other major currencies.

Europe is in deep doodoo with the problems of the porcine acronymed members ran by the Belgian Emperor Van Rompuy. The “PIGS” as they are affectionately referenced (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain) are struggling with Greece as the evident example and problem child du jour, with concerns galore as they try and reduce their deficit as percentage of GDP from its current 12.7% to the inside 3% that’s required from the EU stability pact. It puts the whole EU in a pickle and begs who will blink first in the EU/Greece stand-off. With the wage freezes and cuts that the Greek PM has announced as he tries to bring the deficits in line, I can only imagine that the Greeks, who are well known for taking to the streets in spates of unrest, will do exactly that. What of the UK, where neither party is loved, bankers are hated and the economy continues to struggle and Cool Britannia is no longer?

So the status quo will likely continue for the foreseeable future; but lest we get too comfortable, there is a change taking place in the global paradigm and its implications for all that is currently deemed status quo.

The Creature from Jekyll Island Speaks!

2009-12-17T05:00:00.000-08:00

At the risk of being dubbed Roubini's love child for my sometimes dour outlook over the last couple of years, let me start by saying that the economic data of late has been somewhat encouraging.

Let me then immediately point out, that clearly, we are hardly out of the woods.

Dubai World/Nakheel and its rescue by the UAE Central Bank is a very clear indication. Greece and its growing sovereign problems and the markets lacklustre response to how they will resolve them add to which the constraints of the EU's growth and stability pact, puts Brussels over a barrel.

How can they not rescue them, without forever damaging the EMU even as they own rules dictate that they cannot.

What about Austria and what we have seen with Hypo of late?

It brings our focus back to today, even as we wind down for the holidays with liquidity creeping backwards, in what has been a tumultuous year, questions galore exist on what next and all eyes on the FED.

Today the FED is likely to hold pat on its monetary stance; but with the recent foray into tri-party reverses, and as some of the QE measures coming to their natural end, the signals are probably starting to grow on how it may start dealing with the enormous amount of liquidity swilling in the system. We see the ECB finishing up on its 12 month LTRO and of course we know of jurisdictions actively hiking globally. While the market is starting to write rates higher, the futures curve is correctly of the opinion that we are looking into likely Q3 of 2010.

At all times one asks, if 1% rates back at the start of this decade led to the ensuing bubble and its consequences, what sort of implications will ZIRP have on a go forward basis. Despite that, the deep concern however is still whether all the cheap dosh has delivered what was intended. Sure we have observed some clear results from the cash for clunkers and the help for homebuyers; but as we have seen once that particular artificial support has been removed then conditions snap back to reality.

In my humble view the jury is still out. From a quick overview we are certainly in a much better place than a year ago, and while the data on the face of it looks good, the deeper reviews leaves lots of reasons for concern on how well the overall economy is performing. Lets hope that its starts to move to a deeper and more entrenched reality.

Season greetings to everyone!

My adventures in food....

2009-11-13T07:19:00.000-08:00

Many of my friends and all of my family are aware of how keen a cook I am. My current journey through George Brown College on Saturdays is helping to elevate, not only my understanding of food; but also my abilities around techniques, style and recipes. At the same time my immersion in this topic has me pursuing charcuterie, new braising techniques and a whole bunch of other things. One of the things that I started to do a number of years ago was make my own gravalax.

I would say at this juncture I am able to create a superior product to what i can generally get in the store at a smidgin of the cost. Recently I have started to make a much better product however, by not only curing my lox for 2 to 3 days based on size; but by air drying it in my fridge for 8 to 20 hours to allow for the creation of pellicle and then cold smoking for a couple of hours at 50F. Yesterday I shared the end result of this approach with colleagues at work and it seemed to have been very well received. I am also experimenting with curing for a shorter period by using my food saver to vacuum seal and cure smaller pieces (half a side) that from all accounts should substantially shorten the cure. I also tried that with the smaller piece in the picture which delivered a firmer product with a much better colour.

There are only a couple of places that i believe provides a truly superior product and one of them is J Willy Krauch in Tangiers, Nova Scotia. Their approach is the more traditional Danish method of salting for one day and then smoking over 1 to 2 days. A truly amazing product. Great write up here. http://snipurl.com/t7wtg

Feel free to contact me if you would like my recipe.

Where and What Next?

2009-11-13T07:02:00.000-08:00

I haven't thumbed a message on the train for some time. Is suspect part of it has to do with the inconclusive nature of the data of late as well as the fact that a direct function of that has been reflected in my market marking time. Equities while off recent highs still show resilient performance looking at the returns of the last six months, gold recently hit new highs and I imagine that the commodity currencies in particular are highly likely to take another run at recent achieved highs.

This weekend , I read two interesting pieces, one in the Globe and Mail and the second in the New York Sunday Times.

The first suggested that economists generally speaking invariably get it so wrong, that in fact we may well have a new economic nirvana ahead if we simply take a contra outlook. Now admittedly the focus was more Canadian. The second which was an editorial in the NY Sunday times pointed out a couple of rather scary numbers, that suggested that the underemployment rate was close to 17.5%.

Now note that's the underemployment rate, not unemployment rate. Its all a reflection on what's officially recorded and in the light of Fridays non-farm payroll, many would have you believe that the trend of the officially reported numbers is obviously positive. Clearly, that's one interpretation; but the brute reality is substantially different for the many that have exhausted unemployment benefits, and can no longer claim, and effectively fall of the rolls.

This however does not make them less unemployed and that number is becoming increasingly significant, to the extent that the notions of a second stimulus package or an extension of the very pervasive rescue package already underway will have to continue.

****The unemployment rate includes only jobless people who have looked for work in the past four weeks. The underemployment rate - which also includes jobless workers who have not recently looked for work and part-timers who need full-time work - reached 17.5 percent in October. And the long-term unemployment rate - the share of the unemployed population out of work for more than six months - also continues to set records. It is now 35.6 percent.

The official job-loss data also fail to take note of 2.8 million additional jobs needed to absorb new workers who have joined the labour force during the recession. When those missing jobs are added to the official total, the economy comes up short by 10.1 million jobs. *****[NY Sunday Times Editorial] http://snipurl.com/t5gxs

This rolls into the contention I have expressed previously in these comments and that is the hands of the FED will be tied for longer than they would necessarily like. Its evident that despite the massive amounts of largesse, only a few industries might have benefited and in fact many of the programmes undertaken have yet to yield fruit.

The G20 this weekend seemed to be in agreement

***The MSCI World gauge of equities in 23 developed countries increased 0.9 percent at 10:18 a.m. in London and futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 0.9 percent. Russia's 30- stock Micex Index added 2.9 percent. Gold gained 1.3 percent to $1,109.50 an ounce and crude oil jumped 2 percent. The dollar weakened against 14 of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

Policy makers from the U.S., U.K., Japan and 17 nations said on Nov. 7 that it's too early to withdraw spending intended to revive growth. The MSCI World has surged 66 percent since March 9 as governments spent $12 trillion, by International Monetary Fund estimates, to rescue the global economy from its first recession since World War II.

"Markets don't need to be worried that these governments and central banks are suddenly going to take away all the stimulus measures," Stuart Bennett, a senior currency strategist at Calyon in London, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. "Risk appetite should remain supported into the end of the year.". *****[Bloomberg]

We have a ways to go and this is hardly about a pessimistic outlook and more a realistic one. That would suggest to me that our markets will continue to stay range bound even as we creep higher from the lows of 13 months ago.

Dow 10,000, Infinity & Beyond!

2009-10-15T06:17:00.000-07:00

I thought I would follow up on yesterdays late day missive.

SPX currently 19.5% above 200 day mva. Historically 20% above the 200day MA has proven to be a tough obstacle to overcome.

*During the 2002/2007 bull market, we never hit +20%.
*1986 and 1987 saw 19%/20%, but no higher.
*1982 saw the deviation briefly above 20%.
*1975 saw a marginal move above 20%.
*1943 saw the 20% deviation again prove good resistance.
*1935 and 1936 though saw the deviation above 20%.
*1933 saw the S&P 500 59% rich to its 200-day.
*1929 saw the 20% deviation again prove good resistance.
*94% S&P 500 stocks also now above their 200-day average.

You can't turn your nose at a 60% retracement from the lows and with the Dow at 10,000 again the equity community are likely celebrating the return of the heady days of the market.

Here is a very good comment picked up from Bloomy this morning.

****Intel Corp.’s sales forecast and earnings from JPMorgan Chase & Co. pushed the measure up as much as 1.6 percent to 10,027.73 yesterday. "A lot of people make fun of these milestones, but I think that it has an effect on psychology," said David Darst, the New-York based chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, which has $1.4 trillion in client assets. "That can have an effect on tipping people over to being more worried about being out of the market."*****[Bloomy]

Not so fast I say.

I suspect that there is money on the sidelines waiting to join the party; but for my purposes, I will continue to stick to the notion that we are about to enter the third leg of the W and thus currently sit at an inflection point. One of my market colleagues with many years in the business, had this to say - " I'm now thinking what's coming is leg 2 of a Nikkei-style Triple Waterfall" - which is a lot worse than my suggestion I suspect the new down leg won't reach anywhere near the lows we saw 7 months ago as buyers of dips that might not have participated in this massive run up, likely join in.

But wait one moment....last week we had punters in the Canadian market openly talking of the BoC likely raising rates sooner reflected by the sell-off in the BAX futures and we had a very violent move higher in US rates as the market started incorrectly interpreting the FED's statement as a desire to hike rates sooner than later I don't subscribe too either .

Yesterdays FED statement more accurately articulated at Alphaville this morning

*****DOLLAR HIT ON FED’S DOVEISH TONE - Posted at 04:57 by Gwen Robinson

The dollar fell on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting showed that while some committee members favoured increasing Fed purchases of financial assets to speed recovery, just one policymaker urged a reduction in buying. This overall doveish tone was echoed in the discussion of inflation, suggesting that the Fed is still a long way from raising interest rates. **** (FT Alphaville)

In Canada with the Canuckie Buckie roaring ahead (buy Cad Calls and wear diamonds, or if not sell strangles, after all recent history has shown us 12 big figures stronger from here for Funds is very do-able) the lack of an intervention desk, and the game of competitive devaluation now a fully global one (note the complete lack of vocal statements on a strong greenback policy from Geithner and the administration as the US dollar gets pilloried).

Let's look at other reasons for what might be deemed an artificially high level for equities and reasons why hikes are not likely in North America until the second half of 2010.

We have had a complete government sponsored equity market rally, we know banks are still not lending to each other despite where Libor might be as more hoarding takes place, we recognise that all the wobbly assets that are still off balance sheet will have to be brought back despite current ongoing deferrals, we know consumers are certainly not consuming as much and are certainly not borrowing as much and without the various credits and programmes , whether it was cash for clunkers or first time house buyer credits, that some of the results seen to date would have been even more woeful.

You have an FDIC almost out of cash, the FHA (Federal Housing Administration which insures mortgages with low down payments) likely requiring a bailout of its own, a much larger unemployed population than the data suggest due to the fact that benefit exhaustion rates are screaming higher and with that other impending situations, as we note Commercial Real Estate defaults increasing and with that CMBS's likewise.

But I suspect all eyes will be on equity markets as more good news comes in with Goldman easily surpassing ( not surprisingly) its EPS forecasts and I suspect BoA and CITI will show similar.

A New Forking Threshold - The magical Animal

2009-09-12T22:03:00.000-07:00

I must admit the headlining is becoming somewhat tedious now, so that's the last time it will be used.
Its been a month since I started reading the Menu in Progress blog that provided me with the necessary inspiration to pursue my desire to make my own charcuterie. I seem to be almost there having crossed an initial threshold over the Labour Day weekend where I completed smoking my first two pork bellies after a week curing in the fridge and produced bacon that was then hand cut. I don't own a slicer...yet.

This was followed up by me trying to obtain a "magic fridge" ( a bar fridge essentially that I can use as a sanitary and temperature controlled environment for curing my products) with no luck.

However I still made a major stride forward by making my own sausage for the first time also, over a two day period. It has taken me quite a bit of time to get some of the more specific items such as the prague powder/pink salt and the hog and beef casings, as well as my temperature controller for the fridge I don't yet own.

Nonetheless, the products seem to have been very well received by a couple of friends, though I have to admit that the bacon was saltier than I had planned, so thank goodness for the Quebec maple syrup that i had added to the cure.

Now Pandora's Box is open, who knows what up next; but I have some ambitious plans , though the lack of my curing environment, has forced me to go slower and in fact it has been helpful as I continue to t eh read the excellent tome by Michael Ruhlman & Brain Polcyn - Charcuterie as my current food bible on these topics. AN excellent investment indeed.

I have added some pikkies from Picassa.

New Frontiers Ahead - Forking Good!

2009-08-05T07:21:00.000-07:00

I seem to have gone a little crazy on the Charcuterie front of late.

I have wanted to try my hand at smoking sausages, bacon and all manner of meats for sometime; but have refrained from lack of knowledge, equipment and any number of other reasons including fear of failure and botulism.

I had a fab conversation with a young chef from what is to be a new restaurant BUCA, back in June, (the new restaurant associated with Jakobs Steak House and Brassai) as they fed us at the annual Set Sail for Hope Charity event on Toronto Island, one of my top if not my foremost event of the year. I asked the young chef if it would be possible for me to possibly use a wine fridge for curing as a more sanitary condition rather than the open area in one of the spare rooms in my basement, which while keeping a fairly consistent temperature, still had me concerned and worried about the sanitary nature of the environment. (The room is is primarily used to store dry and tin goods, extra clothes thats been packaged away, wine beer, a dusty rowing machine and any other types of stuff not in use that needs to be stored)

After quite a bit of dialogue and in particular probing on my part, I was 90% convinced that it could be done; the question was then some more research to get comfortable on exactly how I would go about this.

Luck and circumstance would seem to have delivered a path to me filled with knowledge, trials, experience success and failure and lots of pikkies through an exceptional blog if you are a "foodie" (general term) called Menu in Progress.

I say exceptional only because the writing is great, the pikkies excellent, the food very scrummy and not only are recipes provided; but there is wonderful detailing of the experiences.

So over the Simcoe Day holiday weekend I had the opportunity to visit the site a number of times and leave some comments, which were responded to by Mike who writes the blog.

This has led me to do a ton of research on what one might require to get going, for my initial attempts, which I suspect will be pancetta and bacon (start slowly).

This will provide me with the requisite time to get hold of the various equipment that I require from myriad sources. As I mentioned I may start off with bacon and pancetta; but i see a variety of sausages smoked, dried and fresh in my future as I try and advance my knowledge in this area.

Are We There Yet?

2009-07-30T07:14:00.000-07:00

I was asked a few mornings ago with some other colleagues from different asset classes, what we felt might be the biggest impediment to the rehabilitation of the economy and markets over the next number of months. My response and concern was based on the reality of a market that seems hell bent on reading the tea-leaves as being positive for the market at all times and with every piece of data.
This should worry pretty much everyone. In particular the idiotic blabbers at CNBC (though there are a few there that should be paid attention to including the Guru of the Pit _ Rick Santelli) and their desire to find positive headlines and put positive spin on pretty much anything.

The most recent example was Mondays "New Home Sale" figure, which came in as up 11%. Sure its a good number; but the reality is that the number has to be understood in context, and that context represents a number of things that should provide food for thought. First no mention was made of the fact that median prices had dropped by over $13,000 from May at $219K to June at$206K as the folks at Housing Bubble put it

***This is pure economics with prices falling you will expect new home sales to increase especially in the spring and summer months which are normally stronger.**** http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com

This is hardly about being pessimistic and more about realism and pragmatism. The same article points to the growing and largely forgotten Alt A and ARM's situation that's still ahead especially in California.

However a recent publication this week on ZeroHedge's website by Tyler Durden with David Rosenberg (he of ex-Merrill fame and now brightening the firmament at Glusken Sheff here in Toronto) should be read for a reality check. While the document seems long, it’s primarily graphical and makes some very salient and focused points on the economy. It produces data with a little more depth and insight and is sufficiently worrying to leave one floundering in that the overly upbeat prognostications from government and media alike should be taken with more than just a grain of salt.

Specifically in its introduction it shares the following

“We believe an aggressive “fact-finding” investigation into the true depths of the recession is critical due to increased pressure by members of the Mainstream Media and conflicted Investment Banks to present a myopic, unjustified opinion. Furthermore, opinions based on overoptimistic projections and “hope” is the primary reason the Credit Bubble persisted as long as it did.

- As there is an all too real threat of a relapse into the same kind of optimistic zeal and the resultant formation of yet another asset bubble, Zero Hedge is presenting the factual side of the story . We demand that readers question any and all assumptions presented herein (as well as everywhere else) on this most critical subject “ - ZeroHedge Article

Here are a couple of morsels for general consumption that I found particularly chilling.
UNEMPLOYMENT: People have been on unemployment insurance so long it has expired. Benefits exhaustion rate hit a record 50%. Americans are rolling into various extended benefits programs such as Emergency Claims and Extended Benefits, which surged by 170,000 in the last week alone. While “unemployment” is still below 10%, U-6, or the broader underemployment metric is at 16.8%, 6.5% higher from a year ago
HOUSING: NAHB housing market improved in July… To 17 from 15 the 8th worst print on record. Sales outlook is stuck at 26, and anything under 50 is a contraction RealtyTrac disclosed that Q2 foreclosure activity was the highest on record. 􀁠 1.9 million foreclosure filings in the first half of 2009, a 15% increase from the prior year period *June foreclosure filings of 336,173 were the fourth straight month exceeding 300,000 *One in 84 housing units received at least one foreclosure filing in the first half and all this is occurring on the backdrop of an industry-wide housing moratorium *According to Whitney Tilson, foreclosures have been temporarily cut by 66% through moratoria which reduce supply *At some point the banks will need to release the flood gates – watch out below as millions of units in shadow inventory are unleashed on the few buyers out there

The full document can be found at this URL http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/ It is worth the time and effort to give it the once over.

My personal take is that we are some ways along in the process of rehabilitation and that it’s definitely not a V; but looking more like the W.
The kind of percentage returns that we have seen this year in the equity markets and in the S&P in the last couple of weeks alone should suggest that they are hardly likely to continue.

Undoubtedly risk appetite is back markets are on a better footing and business is once again underway; nonetheless the amazing compression in corporate and high grade spreads experienced over the last few months seems over done and unsustainable. Driven by supply (or rather lack of) and demand factors, that do not necessarily reflect the reality of the underlying US economy.
Even as our own Governor at the Bank of Canada tells us that we will be out of recession in Q3, I wonder about his certainty. Maybe it’s the rainy weather that has me all afoul and in need of amore upbeat disposition this week.

Man Without a Plan?

2009-07-28T13:28:00.000-07:00

The other Bernanke my good mate Jimmy!

Maybe its the cynic in me; but I have read a any number of articles t his weekend dealing with Ben Bernanke's testimony last week and whether or not he will be re-elected in January of next year for another 4 years. There are the pros and cons; but before I deal with that there is still the conflicting statements of how he will take monetary policy ahead. Back in May I noted an article in market News that stated that the FED and Bernanke would try and adopt a two track approach to monetary policy within the very easy liquidity arrangements that have been instituted to drag us out of the current economic and credit malaise.
In this weeks testimony to Congress and even prior to that in a WSJ article the day prior to his confessions to Congress, Dr. Bernanke once again reflected on the trail balloon of May, the implications of which are t hat he could essentially drain the system very quickly, by paying for excess reserves held at the FED by banks at the same level as the Fed funds rate, while potentially retaining quantitative easing (vis-à-vis purchase of Mortgages and Treasuries).

It seems that Dr. Bernanke is speaking out of both sides of his mouth however or maybe its simple confusion on my part ( certainly wouldn't be a first), in that he is also stating that the Fed will retain rates at theses low levels for the foreseeable future (i.e. into 2010 as opposed to what the market believes is a necessary hike before year end).

Suddenly the unsmiling Dr. Ben is doing a world tour and has had more press in the last week than a politician running for office.
Well I guess he is running for office after all and so it should not be surprising; but I digress somewhat. It would seem that the there is a substantial split however on what and how Dr. Ben has done. I read two op-ed pieces in Sunday's NYT and I was horrified to find that Dr Roubini who wrote one, quite surprisingly was very supportive of the things that Bernanke had done to address the crisis; however I found myself siding with Anna Schwartz, the erstwhile and highly respected economist, who with great aplomb skewered Bernanke for his numerous failures ("Man without a Plan"). I am certainly with her. I was reminded that way too often the current incumbent of the position of Lord of The Universe like his predecessor Guru Greenspan, have chosen to articulate positions on all manner of things and have been horribly wrong in hindsight.

Where I would have to disagree is that part of his plan was always going to be about inflating the FED balance sheet. The 2002 speech referencing the printing press and distributing dollars from a helicopter has come to pass.

****"Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined
government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation." Dr. Ben Bernanke 2002****

The FED has liabilities galore and continues to print money at an unprecedented rate. This week alone the treasury will be issuing some US$211 bn between T-bills and the auctions for 2Y (42bn); 5Y (39bn) ; 7Y ( 27bn) and the TIPS (6bn).

Its interesting to note that even the disgraced Elliot Spitzer once deemed Wall streets own sheriff for his eager desire to prosecute wrongdoing is now accusing the Creature from Jekyll Island (the place the FED was born) of running a huge ponzi scheme based on discussion with the hubristic and substantially overpaid Dylan Ratigan ( I don't like him).

****Advocating in favour of a House bill to audit the Federal Reserve, Spitzer said: "The Federal Reserve has benefited for decades from the notion that it is quasi-autonomous, it's supposed to be independent. Let me tell you a dirty secret: The Fed has done an absolutely disastrous job since [former Fed Chairman] Paul Volcker left.
"The reality is the Fed has blown it. Time and time again, they blew it. Bubble after bubble, they failed to understand what they were doing to the economy.
"The most poignant example for me is the AIG bailout, where they gave tens of billions of dollars that went right through - conduit payments - to the investment banks that are now solvent. We [taxpayers] didn't get stock in those banks, they didn't ask what was going on - this begs and cries out for hard, tough examination.
"You look at the governing structure of the New York [Federal Reserve], it was run by the very banks that got the money. This is a Ponzi scheme, an inside job. It is outrageous, it is time for Congress to say enough of this. And to give them more power now is crazy." ******** [Source - rawstory.com]

Homecooking......

2009-07-02T08:45:00.000-07:00

I cook and have done so for some time. Part of it has to do with my upbringing.
As the eldest of five and with a single parent, I learnt to cook early. Its amazing but cheese on toast with baked beans for 5 seemed back then as challenging as a putting out a beautiful roast rack of lamb with a potato pave, petit pois with carmelised shallots and a nice jus.
Furthermore my very first job and then the jobs that were to follow exposed me to the delights of quality cooking and restuarnats both as client and coverage.

In recent times I have tried to take my knowledge base up, by enrolling at George Brown College for their Continuing Education Series, specifically in Culinary Arts. At the start of the year I did a 12 week course, and I am about to finish a 10 weeks course, with a three week course coming up that will focus my knife skills. That’s my compulsories and over the next 2 years, taking 6 electives will provide me with my Culinary Certification. I think it simply suggest that I have attended and should have garnered some know-how along the way.

From Canada Day

I had pretty good food knowledge going into my courses; but have found that the classes have elevated that base, primarily because it has helped establish a framework for my knowledge thus expanded my understanding, as I have made connections within my knowledge base as well as learning new stuff.

While I knew that I liked cooking, I didn’t appreciate to what extent until I started attending class and found myself as excited as an eight year old on Christmas morning each Saturday, as I gathered my knife roll and other accoutrements for my four hour session at George Brown College.

The interesting thing is that most folks seem to assume that I want to work in or run a restaurant. Nothing could be further from the truth.
I simply want to be able to cook superb meals at home for both my family and friends. I am not talking about simply cooking elegant meals either.

One of the things that I have found out over time is that as much as I enjoy an elegant meal, beautifully cooked and expertly presented, I am as keen or possibly keener when it comes to braised foods. Ultimately it’s the whole low and slow approach, whether BBQ-ing or braising.

Using a relatively cheap cut, good seasoning and the process of low and slow, it is transformed into something super delicious.

This was evidenced this morning at our office, as I had BBQ-ed a pork butt Canada Day and shared the goodness with my colleagues this morning with my home made tangy BBQ sauce. I have posted a few pikkies of the BBQ process on my Big Green Egg (BGE) and some others from items I have made. Enjoy!

Obama's Ascendancy and Fall

2009-06-17T05:54:00.000-07:00

Along the way I have had a rather interesting dialogue with a colleague of mine that I have the utmost respect for.
Not only is he one of the very best traders I have ever worked with and one of the funniest persons; but he is someone that has a love for the culinary arts like myself, fully interactive in any environment, and with every sort of company. One of his contentions and a consistent one to boot, was that Obama would be a one term President, a viewpoint I have not been able to embrace until recently

He has always ascertained for any number of reasons that Obama would be one term. Recent events that have had very little main media profile has me seriously doubting my opposition to my colleagues contention.

The first aspect deals with the Presidents assertion that Pakistan/Afghanistan would be the focus of the war on terror. His approach is philosophically and fundamentally no different to that of Dubya, just different geographically.

In his attempt to unearth Osama Bin Laden and his Taliban supporters, he has created a source of future enmity and hatred for the USA. The result of his actions is that there are anything between 2.5 and 3 million displaced persons now living in refugee camps in the Afghan/Pakistan borders. This is a direct result of the action of the new Commander-in-Chief. People are dying and displaced, the camps lack water and appropriate facilities, and the only thing that they know is that their current situation and circumstance is a direct result of US policy as ordered by Barack Obama.

Additionally while his recent speech in Cairo was a landmark one in many respects and reached out to the Muslim world, some may see it as cynical picking Hosni Mubarak as host, when one considers the record of the Egyptian leader.

What's even worse is that as part of the financial services industry I watch in astonishment as a bit of a double play occurs, on the one hand harsh rhetoric and the appointment of a czar to oversee executive pay even as the majority of the banks are allowed to borrow from Peter to pay Paul. In this instance I refer to the fact that many of the banks (and read Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley as banks now) happily feeding at the FDIC guarantee trough to borrow cheaply and pay back TARP Funds. Nice arbitrage especially when these institutions are only paying back a portion of what they actually owe; but it allows them a way out from under the heel of the administration re executive compensation and the like.

While I continue to believe in Obama to a greater extent than not, I am increasingly of the opinion that what has always been a plan that sits on a knife edge, will end up falling apart, especially with a likely second leg down in the economy as unemployment picks up and the federal deficit continues to grow at an astounding pace.

The End of US$ Hegemony - June 16th 2009

2009-06-17T04:29:00.000-07:00

This morning I delve into the domain of my esteemed colleague on FX Jack Spitz. We have had numerous conversations on this topic and I suspect many more ahead.

Of late all eyes have been on the FX markets and with good reason; but it has not been the more traditional economic data and drivers that we have generally looked upon; but instead what increasingly looks like a complete paradigm shift.

With the G-8 Ministers meeting this weekend providing rah-rahs and pom-poms for the Greenback and the Finance Ministers of Japan and Russia suggesting faith in the worlds reserve currency for very different reasons, one might question my focus on the end of the hegemony of the Greenback and why this may be the beginning of a paradigm shift that will change the worlds reserve currency.

How can this be?

Currently and for the last number of decades the US way of life and its military spending in particular has been financially sponsored and supported primarily by the Chinese, Japanese and South Koreans, with the Russians in the last few years and the ascent of oil prices, jumping into second place for buying US debt and funding that lifestyle.

We have continually however, and with increased volume of late, heard and read about the concern that's been expressed by these nations, with the exception of Japan and Korea, about the continued depreciation of the USD.

It's a simple matter of observation, seeing the Chinese continually trying (not always successfully) to purchase real and in particular commodity assets with their USD rather than maintain overly large reserves in what is a continually depreciating currency. Recent examples are Chinalco's bid to acquire a stake in Rio Tinto (and despite huge concessions on the part of Chinalco, still a resound failure) and only yesterday Sinopec's bid to acquire Addax Petroleum with a Stg 4.8bn bid.

Over the last number of months the stories/rumours have been numerous on these same creditor countries looking to diversify away from USD and in the last number of weeks we have had stories from not only these creditor countries but also the IMF suggesting use of SDR's (a currency basket of Special Drawing Rights of which the USD is still the largest percentage, though with the Euro and other currencies also making up said basket); add to that Paul Krugman the recent Nobel Laureate in economics suggesting that the GCC should de-peg from the Greenback and the growing cacophony of voices spouting the same notion, demands that attention be paid.

Hence the shellacking that the USD has been faced with of late, as concern grows about the extent of US deficits ($2 trillion and growing) and despite all the talk of a strong dollar policy the evidence that continues to suggest otherwise.

But this week is especially important as the SCO (The Shanghai Cooperation Organization) meet in Yekaterinburg, Russia, (formerly Sverdlovsk) Monday and Tuesday with Chinese President Hu Jintao, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and other top officials of the six-nation group. The SCO continues to gain in significance and in the context of the refusal that the US received in its request to attend this meeting, becomes even more significant.

It's quite evident that the primary subject will be what to do about the US dollar as the world reserve currency. China is already establishing the Yuan as the preferred currency in bi-lateral trade agreements and Russian continues to express a similar desire to use the rouble.

I can't help but believe that we might be seeing a landmark moment in history unfurling before our eyes as it speaks to the hegemony of the Greenback as the worlds reserve currency.

I Want to Believe....in Green Shoots

2009-05-13T07:56:00.000-07:00

The quiet optimism I had talked about of late as it spoke to recovery seems to have been overtaken by rampant stupidity.

However I must admit that I read a piece recently from Albert Edwards of Soc Gen, whose faith may have been slightly shaken as he wondered aloud whether he had in fact missed the start of the new bull market rally.

I suspect not, because one can have very strong bull runs in bear markets and looking at the large percentage gains in the rally over the last 6 weeks, I suspect that we need to remember that those gains are hardly linear i.e. based on where one was to track from let's assume last years highs, then we are still down size from there.

From Recently Updated

The other component that would have me wary is simply the economic backdrop. With on average 500,000 jobs being lost in the US each month and plant and retail closings you have a multiplier effect that may have some way to run.

There might be signs that housing is trying to find some equilibrium, but I am reminded of a great line that I read recently to describe our economic travails and it was that "we are no longer falling off a cliff; but rapidly bouncing down a steep hill"

I sit back appalled that I have missed such an impressive rally in equities; but suspect it's quite unsustainable and would agree whole heartedly with the likes of John Mauldin, Albert Edwards, Ambrose Pritchard Evans, that this is a suckers rally for the very reasons supra.

The metrics are pretty impressive looking back over the last 5-6 weeks Equity up anything 30-50%; Credit spreads compressed in the last month IG12 in about 140 points; Curve steepened; Yields higher - 10Y UST hit their resistance area in the 3.32 - 3.35% area last Thursday and will likely hold a 3.00-3.35% for now: Funding Spread vis-à-vis - Libor-OIS now at +71 (versus last years high of +364); 3mth Libor at its lowest level for quite some time trading under 1.00% (well off last Oct 5.77% high).

Investor risk appetite is definitely returning based on not only equities but on the desire for corporate issuance at a price.

So why the scepticism on my part?

From Recently Updated

Simply put it doesn't add up just yet and furthermore the damage that has been done is structural in nature.

The Banks have all come through the Stress Tests with flying colours, or at least the majority and the others can raise the required capital with ease now that investor appetite for risk has returned; but Treasury carried out these tests and the initial results had many of the banks up in arms including Wells Fargo from all accounts on the initial outcome and recommendations by Treasury to the extent that there was substantial push back by the banks. While the tests might not have been be undertaken with a tickle stick as some have suggested was the case of Barclays with the FSA; it also suggests that the initial rigour was relaxed at the end of the day.

From Recently Updated

I continue to call for embracing the current economic reality. That is not pessimism that's simply making an assessment of the current facts and circumstance without sugar coating. The observation at this point is the likely divide that we will end up with, as you have the very strong dominant players such as JPM, Goldman, CS and MS and the rest of the crowd.

An acrimonious letter of complaint to Bill Caroll , Host of CFRB 1010 Morning Show

2009-05-12T11:33:00.000-07:00

I had the bad luck to be listening to a repeat of your morning show last evening on CFRB and was appalled by your callous attitude towards the suffering of the Tamils in Sri-Lanka. I believe I understand why it is so many listeners consider you a racist based on the attitude you adopt on your show.

While I don't subscribe to that theory, your evidently polarizing approach and contempt for a minority that is suffering, not to mention your reference to the Tamil protesters, in a fashion that would suggest that they are not worthy enough to have the ability to protest in a fashion of they choosing, including breaking the law, screams your contempt at them for trying to bring attention to the slaughter of their families overseas.

I certainly wouldn't disagree with you that walking onto the Gardiner Expressway can only be deemed dangerous; but I suspect that the women and children were not the first to get up the ramp, that’s not me making excuses either, and I wholly agree that breaking the law is not something that should be supported.

Nonetheless you missed the point completely as you excoriated the Tamil spokesperson, threw scorn on the fact that the Tamil community here in Toronto are caring enough of their relatives and former country men and women, in their old homeland, to want to elicit our government to try some form of intervention.

The fact that you also chose to rant in an ignorant fashion about what they thought they would achieve, shows how much you miss the point. Yes folks were and have been inconvenienced by the protest rallies over the last few weeks, myself included; but if you look at the amount of media coverage received by the action taken Sunday, and the responses from various arms of government at the Provincial and Federal level, then that would suggest to me that the Tamils are receiving the interest that they have been trying to attract.

After the genocide that we observed in Rwanda, as Canadians we like to see ourselves as peacekeepers and helping the downtrodden, we have a large population of Canadians of Tamil extraction who are asking for the government of Stephen Harper to use its diplomatic channels to approach international partners at the UN to bring pressure to bear to stop the slaughter; yet you mockingly ask what they hope to achieve, and in fact dismissively imply, its just noisy brown people (my emphasis) breaking the law, putting their children in jeopardy and worse, god forbid inconveniencing and not respecting their fellow Canadians.

The fact that towards the end of your show you backtracked somewhat from some of these heinous attitudes that you spouted earlier in the show does not in anyway help.

I suspect you should be the point person on the wall of shame, you are so quick to attach people's name to for your callous attitude towards a humanitarian crisis.

Movies That I Only Watch on Planes!

2009-05-08T04:25:00.000-07:00

I am watching a movie on a flight to Vancouver right now. Its rather touching and I have just had a bit of a revelation.

I think that I am a bit of a sop for movies about underdogs or unrequited love.
My preference has always been for movies that are fast paced, with gratuitous amounts of sex and violence and in watching this ridiculously touching movie starring Dustin Hoffman - Last Chance Harvey Shine - (with Emma Thompson) I am really moved.

Quite sad; though I am even sadder for the bruising I am taking from the rather rotund and large hipped, big boned South-Asian stewardess as she continually knocks my shoulders for the umpteenth time as she waddles past......

When I look back, I have watched numerous movies on airlines over the years that I would not give a second thought too at Blockbuster or when they arrive in the Theatres (still havent seen Titanic); because they simply don't fit my preference for the fast paced gratuitous sex and violence or for a crime drama thriller British style that I particularly enjoy.

So looking back I can name a few movies that have absolutely surprised me that I have watched on planes that fit that category; but were surpisingly enjoyable though somewhat light on story, some of which are now firm favourites.

Marley & Me; The Notebook; Teh Reader; The Namesake (a movie that I truly love and is now one of my favourites of all time); Valkyrie, a really good movie with an outstanding performance by Tom Cruise (a man I love to hate yet, I find it difficult to criticize the majority of his movies, in fact I really enjoy the majority of his movies).

The list goes on and not wishing to bore you any further will stop there and continue this idiotically enjoyable movie about the human condition as it speaks to loneliness. Shine on Harvey!

My Tokyo Experience

2009-05-02T22:05:00.000-07:00

Tokyo Trip Apr 2009

For more pikkies of my Japan Trip click on this link:

http://picasaweb.google.com/grazor.ray/TokyoTripApr2009#

What an amazing place Tokyo is.

The Japanese are polite, patient, courteous and especially punctual.
In fact the other side to that politeness is that they ignore you with studious conviction. They don't stare and they avoid eye contact unless directly approached.

Its a city of many contrasts feeling at one time as though its all neighbourhood. and at the same time the degree of sophistication evident in so many things also speaks to its worldliness.

I think now of the odd and an interesting marriage it represents, something. borrowed, something blue, something old and something new. Don't really know about the blue bit, but if you take their language, the script they write in, then most definitely borrowed, as is Buddhism and certainly plenty of the old and new living happily together.

I am currently sitting on the Shinkansen, Super Express, more commonly known as the Bullet Train to you and I, so I can absolutely attest to its speed and punctuality.
Its beautiful and sleek, totally functional, comfortable and the damn thing is so spotlessly clean as to be almost intimidating. I am on a day trip to Kyoto to fulfil a 30year desire to visit the place that the first Tokugawa Shogun had his Kyoto residence, Nijo Castle.
Why you may ask, well simply put during my undergrad I took Japanese Economic History with the period Tokugawa to Meiji specifically as my study range.

Did I mention Tokyo isn't cheap, with the exception of the ubiquitous noodle bars and yakitori houses, most items come at a higher cost here in Tokyo.

My observations of the Japanese and my conversations with my dear friend and his fiancee who are hosting my visit, confirms some thoughts I might have had; but my eyes are continually opened based on simple observation.

The evident hierarchical nature of the society absolutely creates its own quite interesting challenges for the ex-pat gaijin community. Probably the most obvious being the evident lack of social interaction outside of the work environment with Japanese colleagues. As my friend's fiancee informed me, after struggling in Japanese all day, its quite nice to wind down and be around folks, where you can not only think in your language; but essentially relax in it and not have to worry about the myriad of cultural trappings and sometimes obstacles to be found here.

No doubt like a typical gaijin I keep being amazed or gawk at simple stuff
.
*The taxi' whose door opens by itself and closes by itself.

* parking lots where cars mysteriously disappear into the floor once switched off only to mysteriously reappear facing in the right direction to drive away.

*The fact that there are vending machines offering a wide array of products though predominantly cigarettes and a strange variety of drinks almost every 75 metres along the way

* Numerous folks wearing white masks, which I didn't initially understand until it was explained that the large amount of cedar trees in the city has led to 1 in 5 individuals having hay fever like symptoms, so its pretty standard..
The other being that when someone has a cold it helps prevent them from spreading it. (Common sense huh)

*Designated smoking areas along the street that's adhered to by one and all.

* that a car can only be purchased if you can show you own a parking spot or have arranged for one

*The fashion statement for the younger women which is one of long socks/leggings running just above the knee, with either denim shorts or a short denim skirt and high heels is a de rigeur outfit in its various interpretations.

* I don't believe I have seen a male under 40 who doesn't carry some type of man bag, very practical actually and generally very stylish.

*Our tour guide(I did a half day tour that was highly informative) kept on referencing western style toilets on my first day. I didn't think too much of it until I went into one of the public bathrooms at the Buddhist temple, hmmmm......different...... and so I understood that there is a traditional Japanese style apart from sit down, despite the Toto brand having some of the most sophisticated I have ever seen.
One opened for me in restaurant rest room in Kyoto today as I approached it making me nervous and wary that someone was watching me.

* Litter is unheard of as was evident this morning as my host was driving me to Tokyo station in his lovely Porsche and had to avoid a gentleman in the road that had stopped his scooter to track down a piece of litter he had inadvertently dropped.

* all the neighbourhoods despite the lack of large gardens etc, are all filled with trees, bushes and all the doris(avenues) are lined with ginko or cedar; but the surprise was the amount of citrus trees with large ripe fruit that can be found. (limited research suggests it might be the bitter orange used in ponzu)

Tokyo is a phenomenally fashionable town and it shows in the very wide variety of western shops and designer labels. Did I mention that it aint cheap :)

I saw Puma's yesterday that were averaging $440 a pair, admittedly they were naturally high end with a designer name attached to them that I had never previously heard of, there were even Puma platform shoes. We also went to a Nike store where you could design your own sneakers, which is a big thing in this town.....Bathing Ape anyone, the styles are multi-hued and equally multi varied.

The Prada cube in Aoyama was quite extraordinary which brings me to another feature which is the variety of architecture and how attractive the majority of it happens to be. As my host pointed out, invariably as they knock down the older structures, the new ones going up show style and panache and of itself is worthwhile for a tour.

The folks in this town like their cars throwing cold water on some of my misconceptions about Japan being a land of small cars. Yes there are numerous small vehicles, especially trucks delivering liquor and spirits as well as foods; but goodness, I can't remember the last time I saw so many high end vehicles and I am talking Rolls Royce galore, Porsches of all sorts, Range Rovers, the Aston Martin seems especially popular, Maserrati's, and BMW's are two a penny. Lots of Alfa Romeos (including the classic Spyder of which you rarely if ever see one in Toronto).
As a sequitur, by the way a delicious and ironic revelation was that the Japanese have played a very expensive joke on those of us that live in the west and pay the premium for their luxury divisions think Toyota/Lexus and Nissan/Infiniti as examples. There is no Infiniti brand here they are all Nissans admittedly with specific names for the Japanese market. The ubiquitous Oakville mum run around. Lexus SUV, is a simple Toyota here. The wily buggers have charged us more for their domestic brands through a simple rebranding exercise. Knowing this intellectually and comprehending it mechanically before was one thing: however I found staring it in the face though to be more than cheeky!

Moving on, one of the consistent highlights for me has been the quality of the food and the fact that I am now a true believer in Japanese A5 Wagyu, something I was able to experience on the evening of my arrival in conjunction with a NY colleague of mine that was coincidentally in town and was leaving the next day. While I have consumed wagyu before, the quality, taste and texture of the A5 was quite something else. We had the most amazing meal at a Yakinuku restaurant in Nishi-Azabu off a tiny side street with a completely unheralded entrance, that I suspect you would walk pass without appreciating it was there.

We were taken through and up the ladder of taste and flavour, with the grilling taking place at our table and guidance from the lovely young woman that was grilling for us, beautiful slivers of meat with a variety of sauces for dipping then a variety of wagyu A5, which was so beautifully marbled that I watched with increased expectation as she grilled a decently thick almost rectangular column to perfection, which was duly consumed with relish by myself and my dining partners.

The meal ended on an especially high note when I was served a bowl of soba noodles in a cold broth that had a hint of citrus, with beautifully chopped green onions and white sesame seeds sprinkled over the top. It was sublime, the textural crunch added by the sesame seeds to the perfectly cooked soba and that broth with its wonderfully perfumed fragrance was outstanding.

The very next evening of course my hosts chose to take the bar up a notch taking me to a tiny fish restaurant in Shibuya on a Friday night allowing me a number of experiences at the same time.
The first being my chance to observe the throngs of Salary Men out on the town in droves, in their suits and with their briefcases, getting a load off after a long week. The second was the superb meal that we enjoyed at Kekiya.

We started with ultra fresh thinly sliced pieces of bass that was marinated in a mix of olive oil, lemon and dribbled with a light, fresh and invigorating pesto. That was followed by crab spring rolls that has no relationship to the more traditional spring rolls as the wrap was more of a firmer textured crepe with warm crab flesh and greens and beautifully seasoned. We moved on to a large platter of sashimi and thank goodness my host insisted that I had some of the fatty tuna belly, which I had generally avoided in the past; but found that this piece of toro melted in my mouth and was so flavourful, I was disappointed I hadn't eaten some more when it first arrived.

Next came gyoza dumplings which simply didn't meet my expectations in shape (cylindrical and cut into good length individual two mouthful portion) or taste and filling. Here we had discernible pieces of seafood with a flavour base that excited the already overwhelmed taste sensorium.
We followed that up with tuna jaw that had been braised and goodness what a total joy, fantastic ingredients cooked with minimal fuss and beautifully presented not to mention amazingly tasty, we rounded of the meal with two whole grilled sweet fish on the bone served with a lovely clean lemon and olive mix with infused herbs, goodness my hosts know how to appeal to my centres of joy!. The food has been fantastic. Did I mention our Saturday sushi lunch with the most divine Unagi I have ever had. This was a full serving uncut on a long slender plate with a small dollop of rice underneath that allowed you to focus on the beautifully grilled nature of the pike eel and the subtlety of the teriyaki sauce, the sheer enjoyment of which forced me to order a second one.

Tokyo has many contrasts as I have observed. After having being at Shibuya crossing on Sunday evening (a total madhouse), having also mingled in the insanity that is Harajuku on a Sunday afternoon, less than 15 minutes away we are in a part of Nishi-Azabu called Hiro, the Five O'clock bell is rung and my host informs me that from all accounts the bell is rung throughout Japan daily, but as we walk back from a supermarket shopping excursion I am struck by how peacefully quiet the neighbourhood is and that's what I found time after time when wandering away from the major dori's or avenues, you hit narrow side streets that it's a total wonder to explore. They are narrow, neat, clean and invariably one will find small eateries, shops or interesting architecture. Life off the beaten track has never been so interesting and this represents in so many respects the land of so many contrasts that I found in my visit to Tokyo.

Not mentioned or mentioned only briefly in this short travelogue; but must be done, observed:

* the madhouse that is Tsukiji Fish Market and eating ultra fresh sushi and freshly grilled pike eel in the surrounding area at 8am in the morning washed down by a beer.

* A day trip to Kyoto for an opportunity to ride the super fast, super clean and especially comfortable Shinkansen Super- Express, better known as the "Bullet Train". Still a marvel of modern engineering that takes you 500km away in just over 2hours. They are never late ( though bloody expensive) The other reason for Kyoto is the history and the temples. You will not be disappointed.

From Grazor's Blog - Writing because no one wants to listen!

* Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo. You may have heard about this based on the furore and controversy linked to Japanese Prime Ministers visiting the war dead. Ignore that and go, its very very worthwhile. Its an opportunity to get a complete history lesson on Japan and its relationship with the world.

* take cash and lots of it. Credit cards are fine; but as I found out to my horror,the Japanese cater to themselves, so access to ATM machines with Plus and Cirrus non existent, with the exception of finding a Citi or HSBC branch and even then try getting money out of your account, challenging.

*the basement floors in the large department stores in the Ginza

* the coach service to Narita. You will get a semi tour of Tokyo thrown in as you move from hotel to hotel for passenger pick-up

* the Japanese subway system. Clean (naturally) and very easy to use, though some decent walks on transfers from one line to the next.

More pictures from My Tokyo trip can be viewed here:

http://picasaweb.google.com/grazor.ray/TokyoTripApr2009#

Arrigato Gozaimasu!